Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticloss 1:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
BOOM Esports
Pangolieroften banned
Hyde · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
Khezcute · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Khezcute · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Mikoto · 1 game
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Khezcute · 1 game
Earth Spirit
Hyde · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
167 picks · 381 bans
Mars
163 picks · 299 bans
Earth Spirit
153 picks · 122 bans
Void Spirit
144 picks · 210 bans
Phoenix
127 picks · 146 bans
Keeper of the Light
111 picks · 199 bans
Nyx Assassin
111 picks · 379 bans
Rubick
106 picks · 57 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:36
Fnatic 55%BOOM Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Fnatic — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 35:19.
Game 2prediction missed39:14
Fnatic 55%BOOM Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Fnatic — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 43:22.
Game 3prediction missed28:9
Fnatic 55%BOOM Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Fnatic — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 39:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 55%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3