Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Nigma Galaxy SEA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
467 picks · 643 bans
Tiny
455 picks · 436 bans
Bane
446 picks · 273 bans
Sand King
411 picks · 560 bans
Dragon Knight
400 picks · 481 bans
Storm Spirit
398 picks · 645 bans
Pangolier
360 picks · 559 bans
Grimstroke
333 picks · 293 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% Fnatic
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total55% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:16
Fnatic 45%Nigma Galaxy SEA 55%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 42:02.
Game 2prediction correct22:27
Fnatic 45%Nigma Galaxy SEA 55%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 50:47.
Game 3prediction correct29:15
Fnatic 45%Nigma Galaxy SEA 55%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 49:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 55%
Series resultFnatic 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3