?
arrow_backBack to match
EPL Masters II · BO3
result vs prediction
FTSwin 2:0
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

FTS

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Katsura · 4 games
25%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
elmo^^ · 4 games
25%
Mirana
Mirana
raregods · 3 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Katsura · 3 games
0%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
monodrama · 3 games
0%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
cutie · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Katsura · 2 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Katsura · 2 games
0%

Nemiga Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 27 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 25 games
36%
Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 23 games
39%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 22 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 20 games
50%
Techies
Techies
ariel · 18 games
44%
Rubick
Rubick
ariel · 17 games
47%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Covisnine · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
485 picks · 330 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
341 picks · 463 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
331 picks · 500 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
328 picks · 504 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
309 picks · 638 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
280 picks · 311 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
266 picks · 190 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
258 picks · 272 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:16
FTS 42%Nemiga Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by FTS in 44:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
Clinkzcutie
49% · 60 games55% · 92 games
Necrophosyoung G
Necrophos
Underlord
Underlordelmo^^
45% · 218 games52% · 159 games
Dawnbreakerhotoke^^
Dawnbreaker
Puck
Puckerase
50% · 274 games48% · 52 games
LinaNattyNarwhal
Lina
Rubick
Rubickraregods
44% · 223 games54% · 195 games
LionCovisnine
Lion
Ringmaster
Ringmastermonodrama
50% · 199 games53% · 476 games
Tuskariel
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed28:22
FTS 42%Nemiga Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by FTS in 41:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone Druidcutie
54% · 104 games50% · 244 games
Shadow Fiendyoung G
Shadow Fiend
Lycan
Lycanelmo^^
59% · 118 games49% · 111 games
Dawnbreakerhotoke^^
Dawnbreaker
Puck
Puckerase
51% · 561 game41% · 335 games
Void SpiritNattyNarwhal
Void Spirit
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magimonodrama
57% · 50 games39% · 77 games
GrimstrokeCovisnine
Grimstroke
Windranger
Windrangerraregods
52% · 344 games48% · 410 games
Hoodwinkariel
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 66%
Series resultFTS 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2