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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Fusionloss 0:2
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fusion

Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Prada · 2 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 2 games
50%
Techies
Techies
Michael · 2 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Prada · 2 games
0%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Wits · 1 game
0%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Wits · 1 game
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Wits · 1 game
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Prada · 1 game
100%

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 24 games
58%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 20 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 19 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 16 games
31%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 16 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Pakazs · 14 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 14 games
43%
Techies
Techiessignature
Panda · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
448 picks · 691 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
435 picks · 200 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
400 picks · 557 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
394 picks · 422 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
355 picks · 619 bans
47%
Rubick
Rubick
354 picks · 169 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
340 picks · 876 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 655 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:30
Fusion 29%BOOM Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 35:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverWits
49% · 181 game51% · 37 games
WindrangerPakazs
Windranger
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiPrada
46% · 15 games50% · 61 game
ZeusDarkMago
Zeus
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMichael
49% · 207 games45% · 100 games
PangolierSacred
Pangolier
47% · 116 games
RubickMatthew
Rubick
63% · 89 games
ClockwerkYadomi
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct12:28
Fusion 27%BOOM Esports 73%
The model gave 73% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 41:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyWits
52% · 323 games41% · 24 games
Anti-MagePakazs
Anti-Mage
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorPrada
54% · 18 games51% · 66 games
ZeusDarkMago
Zeus
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMichael
51% · 187 games48% · 132 games
PangolierSacred
Pangolier
45% · 167 games
RubickMatthew
Rubick
54% · 139 games
Crystal MaidenYadomi
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 87%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2