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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Fusionloss 0:2
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Cuyes Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fusion

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 4 games
25%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Prada · 3 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Prada · 2 games
50%
Techies
Techies
Michael · 2 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Wits · 2 games
0%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Wits · 2 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Prada · 2 games
0%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Wits · 2 games
0%

Cuyes Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Mjz · 5 games
80%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Mjz · 3 games
67%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
ILICH- · 3 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Parker · 3 games
67%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
ILICH- · 2 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
ILICH- · 2 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
ILICH- · 2 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Mjz · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
421 picks · 613 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
374 picks · 387 bans
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
364 picks · 142 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
358 picks · 472 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
318 picks · 582 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
318 picks · 155 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
315 picks · 664 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
313 picks · 434 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 63%
Hero pool strength58% Cuyes Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Cuyes Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:45
Fusion 28%Cuyes Esports 72%
The model gave 72% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Cuyes Esports in 38:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightWits
51% · 54 games47% · 165 games
Centaur WarrunnerILICH-
Centaur Warrunner
Weaver
WeaverMichael
50% · 90 games55% · 93 games
Crystal MaidenMjz
Crystal Maiden
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritPrada
46% · 114 games
Game 2prediction correct19:36
Fusion 29%Cuyes Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Cuyes Esports in 28:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaWits
45% · 41 game54% · 59 games
Dark SeerILICH-
Dark Seer
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMichael
51% · 86 games52% · 102 games
Crystal MaidenMjz
Crystal Maiden
Bane
BanePrada
45% · 34 games
Model check result
Model favoriteCuyes Esports · 83%
Series resultCuyes Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2