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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1w Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 36 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 22 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 18 games
44%
Mirana
Mirana
tOfu · 17 games
59%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Watson · 17 games
59%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 17 games
41%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Seleri · 16 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 16 games
44%

1w Team

Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 20 games
45%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 19 games
32%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
53%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 18 games
56%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 17 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Munkushi~ · 15 games
47%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
505 picks · 690 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
429 picks · 695 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
416 picks · 312 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
413 picks · 403 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
371 picks · 859 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
369 picks · 972 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
363 picks · 501 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
362 picks · 422 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total82% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:7
Gaimin Gladiators 68%1w Team 32%
The model gave 68% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 25:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetWatson
56% · 92 games43% · 107 games
Phantom AssassinMunkushi~
Phantom Assassin
Tidehunter
TidehunterAce
52% · 98 games50% · 249 games
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
Dragon Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritQuinn
52% · 195 games45% · 135 games
MarsSSS
Mars
Elder Titan
Elder TitanMalady
50% · 107 games57% · 88 games
WarlockHduo
Warlock
Weaver
WeavertOfu
45% · 139 games50% · 52 games
Bounty Hunterswedenstrong
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction correct37:37
Gaimin Gladiators 68%1w Team 32%
The model gave 68% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 1:21:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritQuinn
47% · 266 games48% · 183 games
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
Storm Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingWatson
49% · 193 games55% · 107 games
Sand KingSSS
Sand King
Dazzle
DazzleAce
42% · 36 games59% · 141 game
MagnusMunkushi~
Magnus
Tinker
TinkerMalady
41% · 41 game49% · 41 game
Keeper of the Lightswedenstrong
Keeper of the Light
Night Stalker
Night StalkertOfu
56% · 81 game49% · 145 games
JakiroHduo
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 82%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2