DreamLeague Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Evil Geniusesloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 55 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 36 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 32 games
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 32 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 30 games
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 29 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 29 games
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 29 games
Evil Geniuses
Rubick
Matthew · 30 games
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 29 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 27 games
Snapfire
Wisper · 27 games
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 25 games
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 25 games
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 24 games
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
700 picks · 492 bans
Doom
564 picks · 1093 bans
Disruptor
562 picks · 502 bans
Techies
560 picks · 606 bans
Beastmaster
532 picks · 1216 bans
Ember Spirit
464 picks · 1038 bans
Pangolier
459 picks · 915 bans
Enchantress
458 picks · 669 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total71% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:16
Gaimin Gladiators 61%Evil Geniuses 39%
The model gave 61% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 40:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingdyrachyo
PangolierChris Luck
TimbersawAce
Faceless VoidPakazs
Queen of PainQuinn
BatriderWisper
Skywrath MagetOfu
RubickPanda
LionSeleri
Bounty HunterMatthew
Game 2prediction missed9:24
Gaimin Gladiators 61%Evil Geniuses 39%
The model gave 61% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 30:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseekerdyrachyo
Templar AssassinPakazs
LeshracQuinn
BatriderChris Luck
TimbersawAce
Dark SeerWisper
DisruptorSeleri
Spirit BreakerMatthew
Shadow DemontOfu
SilencerPanda
Game 3prediction correct23:6
Gaimin Gladiators 61%Evil Geniuses 39%
The model gave 61% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 25:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterAce
DoomWisper
TimbersawQuinn
SvenPakazs
Faceless Voiddyrachyo
Dark SeerChris Luck
ChenSeleri
Spirit BreakerMatthew
RubicktOfu
DisruptorPanda
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 71%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3