Gamers Without Borders 2022. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gambit Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Tidehuntersignature
Ace · 19 games
Banesignature
tOfu · 18 games
Weaversignature
tOfu · 18 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 17 games
Iosignature
Seleri · 15 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 15 games
Marssignature
BOOM · 14 games
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 12 games
Gambit Esports
Bane
Panto · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 1 game
Juggernaut
Smiling Knight · 1 game
Marsoften banned
AfterLife · 1 game
Mirana
sayuw · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
434 picks · 275 bans
Mars
423 picks · 570 bans
Tiny
386 picks · 449 bans
Death Prophet
346 picks · 727 bans
Sand King
325 picks · 442 bans
Ember Spirit
318 picks · 466 bans
Pangolier
283 picks · 424 bans
Storm Spirit
277 picks · 419 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 66%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:13
Gaimin Gladiators 56%Gambit Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 42:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razordyrachyo
MedusaSmiling Knight
Storm SpiritBOOM
Ember Spiritmellojul
UnderlordAce
BrewmasterAfterLife
GrimstroketOfu
Clockwerksayuw
PugnaSeleri
BanePanto
Game 2prediction correct30:17
Gaimin Gladiators 56%Gambit Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 38:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseekerdyrachyo
TinySmiling Knight
MarsAce
Sand Kingmellojul
InvokerBOOM
BeastmasterAfterLife
WeaverSeleri
Miranasayuw
BanetOfu
ClockwerkPanto
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 62%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2