Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Goonsquadloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 27 games
Iosignature
Seleri · 21 game
Bane
tOfu · 19 games
Storm Spiritsignature
BOOM · 19 games
Weaveroften banned
tOfu · 19 games
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 18 games
Marssignature
Ace · 18 games
Grimstroke
tOfu · 17 games
Goonsquad
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
583 picks · 454 bans
Mars
424 picks · 650 bans
Dragon Knight
396 picks · 516 bans
Puck
394 picks · 856 bans
Bane
375 picks · 250 bans
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 620 bans
Snapfire
337 picks · 163 bans
Pangolier
317 picks · 539 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 42%
Hero pool strength57% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:51
Gaimin Gladiators 55%Goonsquad 45%
The model gave 55% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Goonsquad in 43:04.
Game 2prediction correct30:15
Gaimin Gladiators 55%Goonsquad 45%
The model gave 55% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 34:26.
Game 3prediction correct45:22
Gaimin Gladiators 55%Goonsquad 45%
The model gave 55% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 46:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 55%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3