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ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 27 games
59%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 21 game
71%
Bane
Bane
tOfu · 19 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
BOOM · 19 games
95%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
tOfu · 19 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 18 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
Ace · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
BOOM · 18 games
67%

Natus Vincere

Puck
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 10 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 9 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Solo · 7 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Solo · 7 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
laise · 6 games
50%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
V-Tune · 6 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 6 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Solo · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
613 picks · 463 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
430 picks · 933 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
361 picks · 187 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
360 picks · 585 bans
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
349 picks · 401 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
337 picks · 458 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
318 picks · 196 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
303 picks · 586 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 58%
Hero pool strength56% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:22
Gaimin Gladiators 67%Natus Vincere 33%
The model gave 67% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 36:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razordyrachyo
48% · 78 games50% · 119 games
BloodseekerV-Tune
Bloodseeker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritBOOM
52% · 92 games55% · 47 games
PudgeNo[o]ne
Pudge
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAce
60% · 102 games42% · 103 games
Viperlaise
Viper
Warlock
WarlockSeleri
49% · 27 games44% · 33 games
Earthshakerswedenstrong
Earthshaker
Marci
MarcitOfu
54% · 60 games42% · 57 games
Crystal MaidenSolo
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct28:8
Gaimin Gladiators 67%Natus Vincere 33%
The model gave 67% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 22:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
48% · 117 games38% · 84 games
ZeusNo[o]ne
Zeus
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAce
50% · 140 games56% · 58 games
BristlebackV-Tune
Bristleback
Timbersaw
TimbersawBOOM
47% · 103 gameslittle data
Bounty Hunterlaise
Bounty Hunter
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
51% · 145 games50% · 291 game
Tinyswedenstrong
Tiny
Dazzle
DazzletOfu
53% · 45 games57% · 117 games
Winter WyvernSolo
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 79%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2