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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OGloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 27 games
70%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
dyrachyo · 22 games
59%
Muerta
Muerta
tOfu · 19 games
58%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
dyrachyo · 18 games
67%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Seleri · 17 games
59%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Seleri · 16 games
69%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
tOfu · 14 games
71%
Sven
Sven
dyrachyo · 14 games
50%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 26 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 16 games
69%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 15 games
53%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 14 games
64%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
bzm · 13 games
46%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Yuragi · 12 games
50%
Io
Iosignature
Ceb · 12 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
bzm · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
372 picks · 340 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
334 picks · 318 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
325 picks · 473 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
297 picks · 404 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
282 picks · 197 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
276 picks · 152 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
271 picks · 405 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
268 picks · 193 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total58% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:29
Gaimin Gladiators 54%OG 46%
The model gave 54% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 51:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladedyrachyo
49% · 161 game55% · 87 games
Naga SirenTimado
Naga Siren
Brewmaster
BrewmasterAce
49% · 80 games41% · 68 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightQuinn
54% · 129 games47% · 126 games
Centaur WarrunnerWisper
Centaur Warrunner
Mirana
MiranatOfu
57% · 154 games47% · 146 games
PhoenixCeb
Phoenix
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSeleri
47% · 131 game53% · 228 games
TechiesAri
Techies
Game 2prediction missed15:28
Gaimin Gladiators 56%OG 44%
The model gave 56% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by OG in 35:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistdyrachyo
55% · 162 games51% · 170 games
Faceless VoidTimado
Faceless Void
Huskar
HuskarQuinn
52% · 20 games52% · 71 game
Leshracbzm
Leshrac
Primal Beast
Primal BeastAce
53% · 334 games52% · 271 game
PangolierWisper
Pangolier
Batrider
BatridertOfu
51% · 354 games47% · 184 games
Shadow DemonCeb
Shadow Demon
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSeleri
46% · 173 games42% · 347 games
RubickAri
Rubick
Game 3prediction correct39:15
Gaimin Gladiators 55%OG 45%
The model gave 55% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 38:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracQuinn
55% · 133 games50% · 206 games
MorphlingTimado
Morphling
Weaver
Weaverdyrachyo
48% · 80 games50% · 176 games
Miranabzm
Mirana
Mars
MarsAce
51% · 180 games55% · 184 games
Primal BeastAri
Primal Beast
Batrider
BatridertOfu
51% · 344 games47% · 340 games
RubickWisper
Rubick
Undying
UndyingSeleri
44% · 343 games48% · 174 games
Shadow DemonCeb
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 58%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3