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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PSG Questloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 45 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 33 games
70%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 28 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 28 games
61%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 27 games
78%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 24 games
83%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ace · 23 games
74%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 23 games
74%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 31 game
68%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 21 game
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 17 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
No!ob · 15 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 15 games
60%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Kaori · 13 games
77%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
No!ob · 12 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
776 picks · 586 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
550 picks · 439 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
441 picks · 377 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
414 picks · 689 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
411 picks · 962 bans
57%
Undying
Undying
401 picks · 588 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
388 picks · 207 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
387 picks · 899 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total93% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:7
Gaimin Gladiators 80%PSG Quest 20%
The model gave 80% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 47:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomAce
48% · 250 games46% · 215 games
MorphlingTA2000
Morphling
Terrorblade
Terrorbladedyrachyo
45% · 176 games52% · 107 games
TidehunterATF
Tidehunter
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritQuinn
47% · 339 games51% · 406 games
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Mirana
MiranatOfu
57% · 316 games52% · 151 game
Keeper of the LightOmaR
Keeper of the Light
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterSeleri
50% · 35 games53% · 237 games
SilencerKaori
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed19:37
Gaimin Gladiators 80%PSG Quest 20%
The model gave 80% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 40:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
UnderlordAce
52% · 117 games53% · 244 games
DoomATF
Doom
Terrorblade
Terrorbladedyrachyo
49% · 229 games49% · 152 games
MorphlingTA2000
Morphling
Void Spirit
Void SpiritQuinn
52% · 137 games53% · 482 games
TinyNo!ob
Tiny
Snapfire
SnapfireSeleri
53% · 458 games40% · 131 game
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagetOfu
49% · 140 games51% · 72 games
TechiesOmaR
Techies
Game 3prediction correct27:8
Gaimin Gladiators 79%PSG Quest 21%
The model gave 79% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 31:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svendyrachyo
54% · 94 games45% · 143 games
Drow RangerTA2000
Drow Ranger
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAce
56% · 445 games48% · 127 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Pangolier
PangolierQuinn
53% · 448 games49% · 285 games
Death ProphetNo!ob
Death Prophet
Techies
TechiestOfu
46% · 119 games47% · 522 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Silencer
SilencerSeleri
50% · 264 games51% · 293 games
UndyingKaori
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 93%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3