ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO5
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 3:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Team Liquidloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 45 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 31 game
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 28 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 28 games
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 26 games
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 24 games
Doomsignature
Ace · 23 games
Iosignature
Seleri · 22 games
Team Liquid
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 32 games
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 21 game
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
Tusksignature
Nisha · 20 games
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
Miranasignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
899 picks · 660 bans
Disruptor
571 picks · 443 bans
Tiny
538 picks · 421 bans
Nature's Prophet
497 picks · 791 bans
Beastmaster
462 picks · 1071 bans
Snapfire
451 picks · 330 bans
Undying
450 picks · 624 bans
Mirana
446 picks · 252 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head6 – 4
Model total50% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:18
Gaimin Gladiators 51%Team Liquid 49%
The model gave 51% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 44:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladedyrachyo
AlchemistmiCKe
PangolierQuinn
Queen of PainNisha
MagnusAce
Dark Seerzai
Crystal MaidenSeleri
SilenceriNSaNiA
Keeper of the LighttOfu
PudgeBoxi
Game 2prediction correct9:45
Gaimin Gladiators 50%Team Liquid 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey Kingdyrachyo
Doomzai
PangolierQuinn
Ember SpiritNisha
Bounty HunterAce
Faceless VoidmiCKe
Keeper of the LighttOfu
TechiesBoxi
Crystal MaidenSeleri
LichiNSaNiA
Game 3prediction correct28:13
Gaimin Gladiators 51%Team Liquid 49%
The model gave 51% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 34:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemistdyrachyo
UrsamiCKe
PuckQuinn
Doomzai
UnderlordAce
Void SpiritNisha
Keeper of the LighttOfu
TechiesBoxi
OracleSeleri
Ancient ApparitioniNSaNiA
Game 4prediction correct32:13
Gaimin Gladiators 50%Team Liquid 50%
The model gave 50% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 34:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemistdyrachyo
BloodseekermiCKe
LeshracQuinn
Doomzai
UnderlordAce
WindrangerNisha
TechiestOfu
Skywrath MageBoxi
IoSeleri
LichiNSaNiA
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 50%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 3:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game4 of 4