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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 27 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
tOfu · 18 games
78%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
dyrachyo · 17 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
tOfu · 17 games
53%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ace · 16 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 16 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 13 games
77%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 13 games
54%

Team Liquid

Luna
Lunaoften banned
miCKe · 32 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 27 games
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 24 games
63%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 22 games
55%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 22 games
64%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 22 games
68%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 19 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 19 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
483 picks · 214 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
442 picks · 637 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
417 picks · 737 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
398 picks · 562 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
393 picks · 162 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
387 picks · 339 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
371 picks · 761 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
338 picks · 561 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head3 – 6
Model total51% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:15
Gaimin Gladiators 49%Team Liquid 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 34:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracQuinn
56% · 127 games46% · 68 games
ZeusNisha
Zeus
Slardar
SlardarAce
48% · 60 games52% · 46 games
WeavermiCKe
Weaver
Clinkz
Clinkzdyrachyo
41% · 46 games59% · 120 games
Doom33
Doom
Hoodwink
HoodwinktOfu
49% · 118 games45% · 182 games
BatriderBoxi
Batrider
Venomancer
VenomancerSeleri
51% · 80 games47% · 15 games
AbaddoniNSaNiA
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct19:28
Gaimin Gladiators 50%Team Liquid 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 38:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
55% · 55 games54% · 108 games
Templar AssassinmiCKe
Templar Assassin
Slardar
SlardarAce
64% · 72 games39% · 149 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Razor
RazorQuinn
45% · 180 games42% · 114 games
Brewmaster33
Brewmaster
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidentOfu
51% · 310 games51% · 243 games
RubickBoxi
Rubick
Disruptor
DisruptorSeleri
54% · 164 games48% · 167 games
EnchantressiNSaNiA
Enchantress
Game 3prediction missed13:38
Gaimin Gladiators 52%Team Liquid 48%
The model gave 52% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunadyrachyo
53% · 188 games48% · 187 games
Templar AssassinmiCKe
Templar Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightQuinn
50% · 155 games46% · 45 games
Bristleback33
Bristleback
Brewmaster
BrewmasterAce
53% · 135 games55% · 52 games
DazzleNisha
Dazzle
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
46% · 219 games51% · 224 games
Crystal MaidenBoxi
Crystal Maiden
Weaver
WeavertOfu
50% · 80 games46% · 269 games
RubickiNSaNiA
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 51%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3