FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 1:0series probability
96%4%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TMTeam Mansafloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Muertasignature
tOfu · 28 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 18 games
Chenoften banned
Seleri · 15 games
Doomoften banned
Ace · 15 games
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 15 games
Lichsignature
Seleri · 15 games
Mirana
tOfu · 15 games
Morphlingsignature
Watson · 15 games
Team Mansaf
Crystal Maiden
Nagato · 3 games
Elder Titan
Nagato · 2 games
Marcioften banned
islA · 2 games
Muerta
islA · 2 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
islA · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
islA · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
islA · 1 game
Pugnaoften banned
Nagato · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
532 picks · 727 bans
Clockwerk
493 picks · 575 bans
Batrider
487 picks · 612 bans
Muerta
483 picks · 411 bans
Tiny
477 picks · 575 bans
Gyrocopter
446 picks · 802 bans
Magnus
443 picks · 979 bans
Lion
400 picks · 230 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total96% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:8
Gaimin Gladiators 84%Team Mansaf 16%
The model gave 84% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 23:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarciWatson
WarlockNagato
MagnusAce
SniperQuinn
IoSeleri
RikitOfu
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 96%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1