BetBoom Xmas Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 19 games
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 17 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
tOfu · 16 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Seleri · 15 games
Marcisignature
tOfu · 14 games
Tinysignature
BOOM · 13 games
Storm Spiritsignature
BOOM · 12 games
Bristlebackoften banned
dyrachyo · 9 games
Team Spirit
Tinysignature
Mira · 24 games
Rubicksignature
Mira · 19 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 14 games
Clockwerk
Miposhka · 13 games
Pangoliersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 13 games
Marcioften banned
Mira · 12 games
Razorsignature
Collapse · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
364 picks · 350 bans
Tusk
340 picks · 325 bans
Pangolier
231 picks · 569 bans
Snapfire
226 picks · 123 bans
Marci
221 picks · 442 bans
Undying
221 picks · 389 bans
Mirana
218 picks · 223 bans
Crystal Maiden
217 picks · 146 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 45%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:40
Gaimin Gladiators 35%Team Spirit 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 46:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerShad
UrsaYatoro
Nature's ProphetAce
LinaLarl
Ember SpiritQuinn
MagnusCollapse
MiranatOfu
ClockwerkMira
Crystal MaidenSeleri
BaneMiposhka
Game 2prediction correct14:35
Gaimin Gladiators 34%Team Spirit 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 29:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracQuinn
LinaYatoro
BeastmasterAce
RazorCollapse
ViperShad
TuskLarl
RubickSeleri
TinyMira
RikitOfu
EnchantressMiposhka
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 75%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2