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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 44 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 29 games
69%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 28 games
61%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 27 games
74%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 26 games
77%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 24 games
83%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ace · 22 games
73%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 22 games
73%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 47 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 27 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 22 games
86%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 21 game
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 19 games
79%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
72%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Larl · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
989 picks · 706 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
604 picks · 450 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
584 picks · 441 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
546 picks · 876 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
508 picks · 374 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
498 picks · 355 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
496 picks · 1084 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
494 picks · 1177 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 49%
Hero pool strength53% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total72% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:7
Gaimin Gladiators 63%Team Spirit 37%
The model gave 63% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 30:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusadyrachyo
53% · 68 games51% · 64 games
SvenYatoro
Sven
Pangolier
PangolierQuinn
49% · 198 games57% · 50 games
Dark SeerCollapse
Dark Seer
Underlord
UnderlordAce
50% · 77 games56% · 197 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagetOfu
52% · 94 games50% · 112 games
AlchemistMira
Alchemist
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSeleri
41% · 118 games44% · 132 games
Keeper of the LightMiposhka
Keeper of the Light
Game 2prediction correct25:22
Gaimin Gladiators 60%Team Spirit 40%
The model gave 60% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 46:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusadyrachyo
53% · 102 games54% · 154 games
Monkey KingYatoro
Monkey King
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiAce
46% · 52 games29% · 3 games
AxeCollapse
Axe
Void Spirit
Void SpiritQuinn
43% · 96 games62% · 138 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LighttOfu
47% · 152 games47% · 128 games
EnchantressMiposhka
Enchantress
Silencer
SilencerSeleri
43% · 93 games51% · 72 games
Skywrath MageMira
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 72%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2