Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 29 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 21 game
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 20 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 19 games
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 17 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 17 games
Linasignature
dyrachyo · 15 games
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 14 games
Tundra Esports
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 28 games
Tinysignature
Saksa · 21 game
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 19 games
Doomsignature
33 · 19 games
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 19 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 17 games
Tusk
Nine · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
886 picks · 612 bans
Tiny
632 picks · 439 bans
Tusk
534 picks · 433 bans
Treant Protector
533 picks · 544 bans
Nature's Prophet
532 picks · 846 bans
Snapfire
475 picks · 328 bans
Death Prophet
464 picks · 994 bans
Clockwerk
434 picks · 312 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 59%
Hero pool strength50% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total55% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:40
Gaimin Gladiators 51%Tundra Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 45:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemistdyrachyo
LifestealerSkiter
TidehunterAce
RikiNine
PangolierQuinn
Beastmaster33
EnchantressSeleri
SnapfireSaksa
HoodwinktOfu
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Game 2prediction correct30:11
Gaimin Gladiators 54%Tundra Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 29:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracQuinn
Doom33
BeastmasterAce
Anti-MageSkiter
Slarkdyrachyo
LinaNine
EnchantresstOfu
SnapfireSaksa
IoSeleri
GyrocopterSneyking
Game 3prediction missed26:45
Gaimin Gladiators 53%Tundra Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 1:00:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Sirendyrachyo
Dragon KnightSkiter
BatriderQuinn
Doom33
Keeper of the LightAce
Storm SpiritNine
Monkey KingtOfu
UndyingSneyking
RubickSeleri
HoodwinkSaksa
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 55%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3