ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Gamax Esportswin 2:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hininyloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gamax Esports
Spectreoften banned
Alberkaaa · 1 game
Weaveroften banned
Alberkaaa · 1 game
Hininy
Anti-Mageoften banned
islA · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
islA · 1 game
Luna
islA · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
islA · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
islA · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
islA · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
300 picks · 435 bans
Phoenix
274 picks · 409 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
Lion
229 picks · 205 bans
Tusk
228 picks · 210 bans
Nature's Prophet
227 picks · 637 bans
Vengeful Spirit
223 picks · 114 bans
Magnus
216 picks · 333 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 33%
Hero pool strength52% Hininy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Hininy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:39
Gamax Esports 49%Hininy 51%
The model gave 51% on Hininy — the game was taken by Hininy in 51:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolierdualrazee
Naga SirenislA
UndyingNagato
Game 2prediction missed38:13
Gamax Esports 44%Hininy 56%
The model gave 56% on Hininy — the game was taken by Gamax Esports in 35:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Outworld Destroyerdualrazee
Naga SirenislA
TuskNagato
Game 3prediction missed42:10
Gamax Esports 48%Hininy 52%
The model gave 52% on Hininy — the game was taken by Gamax Esports in 27:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invokerdualrazee
MorphlingislA
HoodwinkNagato
Model check result
Model favoriteHininy · 57%
Series resultGamax Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3