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DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
GamerLegionwin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Amaru Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GamerLegion

Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 22 games
41%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 21 game
52%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Speeed · 21 game
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 20 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 20 games
45%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
RCY · 19 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Bignum · 19 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 17 games
29%

Amaru Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Gardick · 9 games
33%
Kez
Kezsignature
Wits · 9 games
78%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Michael · 8 games
75%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Oscar · 8 games
63%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Gardick · 7 games
57%
Axe
Axesignature
Oscar · 6 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 6 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
TaiLung · 6 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
642 picks · 691 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
522 picks · 455 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
496 picks · 416 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
435 picks · 288 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
427 picks · 417 bans
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
403 picks · 1106 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
394 picks · 855 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
384 picks · 626 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Amaru Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% GamerLegion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:10
GamerLegion 64%Amaru Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 28:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzGhost
53% · 93 games47% · 286 games
WindrangerK1
Windranger
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
50% · 312 games49% · 290 games
TidehunterOscar
Tidehunter
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritRCY
41% · 279 games52% · 474 games
Shadow DemonMichael
Shadow Demon
Rubick
RubickBignum
55% · 78 games62% · 109 games
Treant ProtectorPanda
Treant Protector
Tusk
TuskSpeeed
40% · 397 games
Game 2prediction correct34:5
GamerLegion 65%Amaru Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 32:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Night Stalker
Night StalkerFayde
48% · 46 games49% · 60 games
JuggernautK1
Juggernaut
Sand King
Sand KingRCY
54% · 141 game54% · 125 games
BristlebackOscar
Bristleback
Alchemist
AlchemistGhost
51% · 46 games38% · 79 games
EnchantressPanda
Enchantress
Rubick
RubickBignum
48% · 89 games49% · 201 game
HoodwinkMichael
Hoodwink
Chen
ChenSpeeed
57% · 143 games
Model check result
Model favoriteGamerLegion · 76%
Series resultGamerLegion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2