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DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
GamerLegionwin 3:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Amaru Gamingloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GamerLegion

Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 22 games
55%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 22 games
41%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 21 game
52%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Speeed · 21 game
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 20 games
45%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
RCY · 20 games
65%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Bignum · 20 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 17 games
29%

Amaru Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Michael · 9 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Gardick · 9 games
33%
Kez
Kezsignature
Wits · 9 games
78%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Oscar · 9 games
56%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Gardick · 8 games
50%
Axe
Axesignature
Oscar · 6 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 6 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
TaiLung · 6 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
649 picks · 684 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
528 picks · 448 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
503 picks · 419 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
446 picks · 438 bans
54%
Warlock
Warlock
435 picks · 287 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
410 picks · 1112 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
405 picks · 868 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
402 picks · 186 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% Amaru Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total77% GamerLegion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:10
GamerLegion 63%Amaru Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 29:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterRCY
49% · 308 games57% · 200 games
GyrocopterK1
Gyrocopter
Viper
ViperGhost
47% · 104 games51% · 184 games
TidehunterOscar
Tidehunter
Underlord
UnderlordFayde
50% · 194 games46% · 141 game
ChenPanda
Chen
Venomancer
VenomancerSpeeed
49% · 57 games54% · 227 games
HoodwinkMichael
Hoodwink
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerBignum
44% · 89 games
Game 2prediction correct37:7
GamerLegion 67%Amaru Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 29:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckRCY
53% · 242 games45% · 125 games
LunaK1
Luna
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFayde
50% · 91 game45% · 200 games
BrewmasterOscar
Brewmaster
Muerta
MuertaGhost
59% · 128 games51% · 391 game
BatriderPanda
Batrider
Tusk
TuskSpeeed
47% · 270 games49% · 174 games
RubickMichael
Rubick
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBignum
53% · 159 games
Game 3prediction correct0:0
GamerLegion 65%Amaru Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 44:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingGhost
40% · 29 games49% · 77 games
LunaK1
Luna
Void Spirit
Void SpiritRCY
50% · 74 games57% · 229 games
UnderlordOscar
Underlord
Doom
DoomFayde
56% · 51 game47% · 28 games
TechiesMichael
Techies
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageBignum
40% · 41 game56% · 8 games
Winter WyvernPanda
Winter Wyvern
Tusk
TuskSpeeed
48% · 147 games
Model check result
Model favoriteGamerLegion · 77%
Series resultGamerLegion 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3