BLAST Slam VI · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GamerLegion
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 16 games
Jakirosignature
Speeed · 15 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 11 games
Clockwerksignature
Bignum · 11 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 11 games
Batridersignature
Speeed · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
RCY · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 9 games
MOUZ
Tusksignature
yamich · 66 games
Snapfire
Seleri · 53 games
Pudge
yamich · 47 games
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 46 games
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 41 game
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 36 games
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 34 games
Marssignature
BOOM · 34 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
616 picks · 949 bans
Tusk
537 picks · 439 bans
Centaur Warrunner
488 picks · 641 bans
Dragon Knight
474 picks · 635 bans
Shadow Demon
440 picks · 961 bans
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 661 bans
Mars
396 picks · 543 bans
Warlock
395 picks · 243 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total78% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:8
GamerLegion 35%MOUZ 65%
The model gave 65% on MOUZ — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 42:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezYamSun
MuertaCrystallis
UnderlordFayde
Ember SpiritMidOne
Shadow FiendRCY
TinyBOOM
WarlockSpeeed
JakiroSeleri
Shadow DemonBignum
Windrangeryamich
Game 2prediction correct16:34
GamerLegion 33%MOUZ 67%
The model gave 67% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 35:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckRCY
UnderlordBOOM
BeastmasterFayde
ViperMidOne
ClinkzYamSun
Dragon KnightCrystallis
WarlockSpeeed
SnapfireSeleri
Dark WillowBignum
Tuskyamich
Game 3prediction missed42:11
GamerLegion 33%MOUZ 67%
The model gave 67% on MOUZ — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 38:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
OmniknightYamSun
Shadow FiendMidOne
Storm SpiritRCY
ClinkzCrystallis
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
UnderlordBOOM
ChenSpeeed
SnapfireSeleri
JakiroBignum
Pudgeyamich
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 78%
Series resultGamerLegion 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3