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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Conventus Stellarumloss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Conventus Stellarum

Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
DM · 2 games
50%
Bane
Baneoften banned
Panto · 1 game
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 1 game
100%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
DM · 1 game
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 1 game
0%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Lorenof · 1 game
0%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
Ghost · 1 game
100%
Mirana
Mirana
OmaR · 1 game
100%

Xtreme Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
fy · 30 games
57%
Rubick
Rubick
fy · 19 games
42%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 18 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolier
NothingToSay · 17 games
53%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
67%
Lich
Lichsignature
xNova · 14 games
64%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ame · 13 games
54%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NothingToSay · 12 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
471 picks · 287 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
328 picks · 133 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
327 picks · 143 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
309 picks · 454 bans
58%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
288 picks · 428 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
287 picks · 294 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
267 picks · 204 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
267 picks · 233 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 37%
Hero pool strength53% Conventus Stellarum
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:9
Conventus Stellarum 46%Xtreme Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Conventus Stellarum in 36:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerGhost
51% · 210 games47% · 87 games
MorphlingAme
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
53% · 331 game49% · 237 games
Doomzeal
Doom
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDM
52% · 343 games49% · 225 games
Earth SpiritXm
Earth Spirit
Techies
TechiesOmaR
50% · 103 games45% · 317 games
Dark WillowXinQ
Dark Willow
Undying
UndyingPanto
55% · 143 games48% · 264 games
Shadow DemonBoBoKa
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct17:45
Conventus Stellarum 46%Xtreme Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
48% · 254 games60% · 91 game
JuggernautAme
Juggernaut
Kez
KezGhost
46% · 152 games48% · 334 games
PangolierXm
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixDM
47% · 176 games51% · 60 games
Enigmazeal
Enigma
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterOmaR
55% · 63 games52% · 105 games
MiranaXinQ
Mirana
Warlock
WarlockPanto
44% · 139 games50% · 194 games
BaneBoBoKa
Bane
Game 3prediction correct51:50
Conventus Stellarum 46%Xtreme Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:10:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
52% · 297 games61% · 67 games
ClinkzAme
Clinkz
Necrophos
NecrophosGhost
54% · 93 games42% · 73 games
Brewmasterzeal
Brewmaster
Enigma
EnigmaDM
52% · 81 game44% · 160 games
Earth SpiritXm
Earth Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPanto
43% · 255 games52% · 62 games
Spirit BreakerXinQ
Spirit Breaker
Techies
TechiesOmaR
53% · 164 games51% · 528 games
HoodwinkBoBoKa
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 57%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3