ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GamerLegion
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 11 games
Jakirosignature
Speeed · 10 games
Snapfiresignature
Bignum · 8 games
Batridersignature
Speeed · 7 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 7 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 6 games
Clockwerksignature
Bignum · 6 games
Rottweilas LATAM
Shadow Fiendoften banned
DaaD- · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
Kez
DaaD- · 2 games
Muerta
Genek · 2 games
Nyx Assassin
Genek · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Adrx · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
Adrx · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
527 picks · 766 bans
Tusk
489 picks · 342 bans
Dragon Knight
458 picks · 636 bans
Centaur Warrunner
440 picks · 551 bans
Shadow Demon
375 picks · 678 bans
Gyrocopter
351 picks · 568 bans
Mars
340 picks · 454 bans
Slardar
321 picks · 887 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 64%
Hero pool strength51% GamerLegion
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total77% GamerLegion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:30
GamerLegion 65%Rottweilas LATAM 35%
The model gave 65% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by Rottweilas LATAM in 52:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorYamSun
Phantom AssassinCostabile
BeastmasterRCY
DawnbreakerAdrx
BrewmasterFayde
WarlockYadomi
DazzleSpeeed
ClockwerkGenek
Bounty HunterBignum
Game 2prediction correct22:12
GamerLegion 67%Rottweilas LATAM 33%
The model gave 67% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 48:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendYamSun
WindrangerCostabile
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
MarsAdrx
SlardarRCY
TinyGenek
MarciBignum
Naga SirenYadomi
UndyingSpeeed
Game 3prediction missed10:33
GamerLegion 63%Rottweilas LATAM 37%
The model gave 63% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by Rottweilas LATAM in 37:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorYamSun
Shadow FiendCostabile
BeastmasterFayde
BrewmasterAdrx
Ember SpiritRCY
Elder TitanYadomi
Crystal MaidenSpeeed
MuertaGenek
TuskBignum
Model check result
Model favoriteGamerLegion · 77%
Series resultRottweilas LATAM 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3