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PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
GamerLegionwin 2:1
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spiritloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GamerLegion

Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 22 games
41%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Speeed · 21 game
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 20 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 20 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 20 games
45%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
RCY · 17 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
Bignum · 16 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Speeed · 15 games
67%

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 33 games
73%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Panto · 33 games
61%
Tusk
Tusk
rue · 31 game
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 26 games
58%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
rue · 25 games
64%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 24 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 21 game
71%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
664 picks · 767 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
546 picks · 514 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
499 picks · 413 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
454 picks · 312 bans
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
415 picks · 1113 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
396 picks · 800 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
395 picks · 319 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
389 picks · 593 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total79% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:12
GamerLegion 32%Team Spirit 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 35:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzGhost
49% · 123 games55% · 225 games
Templar AssassinYatoro
Templar Assassin
Underlord
UnderlordFayde
50% · 267 games42% · 377 games
BeastmasterLarl
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierRCY
45% · 339 games48% · 359 games
MarsBatyuk
Mars
Rubick
RubickBignum
58% · 75 games67% · 79 games
Treant ProtectorPanto
Treant Protector
Tusk
TuskSpeeed
43% · 580 games51% · 344 games
Shadow Demonrue
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct26:34
GamerLegion 37%Team Spirit 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 46:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomGhost
54% · 156 games34% · 14 games
Drow RangerYatoro
Drow Ranger
Enigma
EnigmaFayde
55% · 96 games44% · 92 games
LeshracLarl
Leshrac
Sand King
Sand KingRCY
57% · 182 games41% · 174 games
PangolierBatyuk
Pangolier
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorBignum
69% · 63 games45% · 44 games
Lionrue
Lion
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSpeeed
60% · 54 games40% · 227 games
TuskPanto
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed40:15
GamerLegion 37%Team Spirit 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 51:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomGhost
55% · 160 games34% · 14 games
Drow RangerYatoro
Drow Ranger
Enigma
EnigmaFayde
54% · 109 games41% · 174 games
PangolierLarl
Pangolier
Sand King
Sand KingRCY
57% · 160 games47% · 81 game
UndyingBatyuk
Undying
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSpeeed
60% · 48 games45% · 44 games
Lionrue
Lion
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorBignum
66% · 63 games40% · 227 games
TuskPanto
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 79%
Series resultGamerLegion 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3