?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
GamerLegionloss 0:2
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GamerLegion

Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 17 games
59%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Speeed · 17 games
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 14 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 13 games
38%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 12 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bignum · 11 games
64%
Viper
Viperoften banned
RCY · 11 games
55%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Speeed · 10 games
80%

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 33 games
58%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 25 games
76%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 23 games
74%
Pugna
Pugna
Whitemon · 21 game
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 20 games
65%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
33 · 19 games
68%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Pure~ · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
622 picks · 963 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
509 picks · 435 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
460 picks · 624 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
435 picks · 996 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
429 picks · 471 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 510 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
420 picks · 261 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
398 picks · 551 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total87% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:40
GamerLegion 27%Tundra Esports 73%
The model gave 73% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzYamSun
58% · 111 games45% · 483 games
Beastmasterbzm
Beastmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritRCY
44% · 362 games53% · 121 game
KezPure~
Kez
Mars
MarsFayde
45% · 341 game54% · 540 games
Centaur Warrunner33
Centaur Warrunner
Jakiro
JakiroBignum
47% · 540 games58% · 122 games
MiranaWhitemon
Mirana
Warlock
WarlockSpeeed
45% · 367 games54% · 455 games
Shadow DemonAri
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct19:23
GamerLegion 27%Tundra Esports 73%
The model gave 73% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 30:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYamSun
50% · 189 games49% · 350 games
GyrocopterPure~
Gyrocopter
Void Spirit
Void SpiritRCY
45% · 163 games44% · 156 games
Doom33
Doom
Slardar
SlardarFayde
46% · 198 games55% · 129 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Warlock
WarlockSpeeed
49% · 300 games56% · 251 game
MarciAri
Marci
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBignum
51% · 214 games55% · 178 games
BaneWhitemon
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 87%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2