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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Geek Famloss 1:3
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Blacklist Internationalwin 3:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Geek Fam

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 10 games
70%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 10 games
70%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
NARMAN · 9 games
89%
Axe
Axe
Force · 6 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Ulnit · 6 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Skem · 6 games
83%
Sven
Svensignature
Ulnit · 6 games
67%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
NARMAN · 6 games
67%

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
239 picks · 283 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
238 picks · 109 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
230 picks · 263 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
204 picks · 267 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
204 picks · 439 bans
63%
Pangolier
Pangolier
199 picks · 418 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
181 picks · 281 bans
46%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
176 picks · 176 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 63%
Hero pool strength58% Geek Fam
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total52% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:1
Geek Fam 52%Blacklist International 48%
The model gave 52% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 25:25.
Game 2prediction missed27:35
Geek Fam 52%Blacklist International 48%
The model gave 52% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 49:48.
Game 3prediction missed11:28
Geek Fam 52%Blacklist International 48%
The model gave 52% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 49:46.
Game 4prediction missed15:32
Geek Fam 52%Blacklist International 48%
The model gave 52% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 41:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 52%
Series resultBlacklist International 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4