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Игры Будущего 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famloss 1:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Geek Fam

Rubick
Rubicksignature
NARMAN · 12 games
75%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Jing · 11 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Skem · 9 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Mac · 6 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jing · 6 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Skem · 6 games
67%
Sven
Svensignature
Ulnit · 6 games
67%
Warlock
Warlock
Skem · 6 games
50%

BOOM Esports

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panda · 10 games
40%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 10 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 8 games
38%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Ws · 7 games
29%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 7 games
29%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 7 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 6 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Panda · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
349 picks · 301 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
332 picks · 509 bans
58%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
314 picks · 295 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
268 picks · 364 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
253 picks · 447 bans
55%
Luna
Luna
244 picks · 226 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
244 picks · 365 bans
49%
Techies
Techies
238 picks · 149 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 58%
Hero pool strength57% Geek Fam
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:9
Geek Fam 54%BOOM Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 40:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenNatsumi
51% · 65 games48% · 51 game
MedusaPakazs
Medusa
Zeus
ZeusMac
46% · 18 games47% · 74 games
AlchemistILICH-
Alchemist
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJing
45% · 45 games57% · 68 games
Crystal MaidenPanda
Crystal Maiden
Mirana
MiranaSkem
53% · 65 games
Game 2prediction missed8:29
Geek Fam 57%BOOM Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 37:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordNatsumi
53% · 44 games44% · 163 games
MorphlingPakazs
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierMac
52% · 177 games45% · 57 games
DawnbreakerILICH-
Dawnbreaker
Mirana
MiranaJing
60% · 63 games49% · 128 games
LionPanda
Lion
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSkem
48% · 64 games
Game 3prediction missed14:23
Geek Fam 52%BOOM Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 37:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaNatsumi
48% · 36 games55% · 110 games
MedusaPakazs
Medusa
Pangolier
PangolierMac
49% · 196 games53% · 122 games
EnigmaILICH-
Enigma
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJing
44% · 61 game57% · 231 game
TechiesPanda
Techies
Undying
UndyingSkem
41% · 170 games
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 57%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3