Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famwin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Geek Fam
Rubicksignature
Hishge · 13 games
Snapfire
NARMAN · 11 games
Undyingoften banned
ace12 · 11 games
Broodmotheroften banned
423 · 9 games
Marssignature
eleven · 8 games
Miranasignature
Roddgeee · 8 games
Skywrath Mageoften banned
ace12 · 8 games
Visageoften banned
eleven · 8 games
Execration
Visagesignature
Tino- · 16 games
Marcisignature
Shanks · 12 games
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 11 games
Enigmasignature
Tino- · 11 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Shanks · 11 games
Earthshakersignature
Shanks · 10 games
Puckoften banned
Bob · 10 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Palos · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
354 picks · 342 bans
Tiny
329 picks · 328 bans
Mirana
255 picks · 252 bans
Rubick
246 picks · 189 bans
Crystal Maiden
204 picks · 144 bans
Snapfire
178 picks · 105 bans
Pangolier
176 picks · 496 bans
Silencer
169 picks · 190 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:8
Geek Fam 50%Execration 50%
The model gave 50% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 34:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterSkem
LinaPalos
MagnusForce
TinyBob
RubickNARMAN
Primal BeastTino-
IoRoddgeee
MarciShanks
Game 2prediction correct32:10
Geek Fam 51%Execration 49%
The model gave 51% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 42:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetSkem
SpectrePalos
TidehunterForce
BatriderBob
MarciNARMAN
Primal BeastTino-
OmniknightRoddgeee
Dark WillowShanks
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 52%
Series resultGeek Fam 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2