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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famwin 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Neon Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Geek Fam

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 12 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 12 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
NARMAN · 11 games
55%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 10 games
70%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Force · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
NARMAN · 9 games
44%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Force · 8 games
50%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Skem · 8 games
50%

Neon Esports

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Ken · 7 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
50%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Hated · 6 games
33%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ken · 6 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
FortuneSoul · 5 games
60%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 4 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Hishge · 4 games
25%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
FortuneSoul · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
742 picks · 593 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
608 picks · 529 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
553 picks · 1095 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
548 picks · 1311 bans
58%
Techies
Techies
487 picks · 544 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
468 picks · 949 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
461 picks · 1132 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
450 picks · 642 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% Geek Fam
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:8
Geek Fam 58%Neon Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 27:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingUlnit
47% · 63 games52% · 124 games
Storm SpiritKen
Storm Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
51% · 30 games49% · 92 games
BloodseekerFortuneSoul
Bloodseeker
Batrider
BatriderSkem
58% · 140 games42% · 80 games
WindrangerHishge
Windranger
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerNARMAN
52% · 63 games
Game 2prediction missed31:38
Geek Fam 55%Neon Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 44:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingUlnit
52% · 102 games50% · 82 games
AlchemistFortuneSoul
Alchemist
Undying
UndyingForce
51% · 177 games48% · 158 games
Storm SpiritKen
Storm Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonNARMAN
44% · 28 games50% · 232 games
EnchantressHishge
Enchantress
Disruptor
DisruptorSkem
53% · 165 games
Game 3prediction correct36:9
Geek Fam 55%Neon Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 34:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaUlnit
64% · 73 games45% · 115 games
TerrorbladeFortuneSoul
Terrorblade
Axe
AxeForce
46% · 20 games47% · 125 games
Storm SpiritKen
Storm Spirit
Batrider
BatriderSkem
50% · 147 games42% · 94 games
Spirit BreakerHishge
Spirit Breaker
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageNARMAN
56% · 94 games
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 63%
Series resultGeek Fam 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3