Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famloss 0:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Geek Fam
Rubicksignature
Hishge · 14 games
Snapfire
NARMAN · 11 games
Undyingoften banned
ace12 · 11 games
Broodmotheroften banned
423 · 9 games
Marcisignature
Hishge · 8 games
Miranasignature
Roddgeee · 8 games
Skywrath Mage
ace12 · 8 games
Tusksignature
Roddgeee · 8 games
Talon Esports
Marcioften banned
Q · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mikoto · 17 games
Tinyoften banned
Q · 15 games
Enchantressoften banned
Hyde · 13 games
Visageoften banned
kpii · 13 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
kpii · 12 games
Doomoften banned
23savage · 11 games
Disruptorsignature
Hyde · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
378 picks · 354 bans
Tiny
334 picks · 335 bans
Rubick
285 picks · 213 bans
Mirana
271 picks · 269 bans
Crystal Maiden
195 picks · 144 bans
Snapfire
187 picks · 107 bans
Pangolier
182 picks · 500 bans
Treant Protector
178 picks · 237 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Geek Fam
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:23
Geek Fam 55%Talon Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 30:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterSkem
Terrorblade23savage
Death ProphetForce
PangolierMikoto
TuskNARMAN
Keeper of the LightJabz
IoRoddgeee
RubickQ
53% · 125 games
Treant ProtectorOli
Game 2prediction missed6:28
Geek Fam 53%Talon Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 25:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoSkem
Ember SpiritMikoto
SnapfireForce
Morphling23savage
Spirit BreakerNARMAN
BroodmotherJabz
PhoenixRoddgeee
RubickQ
49% · 10 games
OmniknightOli
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 57%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2