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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famloss 1:2
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Talon Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Geek Fam

Rubick
Rubick
NARMAN · 18 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
NARMAN · 15 games
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 14 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Roddgeee · 11 games
73%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
NARMAN · 10 games
30%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 10 games
80%
Snapfire
Snapfire
NARMAN · 10 games
50%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangersignature
Skem · 9 games
67%

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusksignature
Q · 28 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 21 game
81%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 18 games
89%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Q · 18 games
61%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 16 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Oli · 15 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 14 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
883 picks · 612 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
628 picks · 438 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
533 picks · 544 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
531 picks · 433 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
529 picks · 845 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
474 picks · 327 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
464 picks · 988 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
428 picks · 310 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 67%
Hero pool strength58% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total87% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:6
Geek Fam 28%Talon Esports 72%
The model gave 72% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 30:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
44% · 44 games54% · 170 games
Morphling23savage
Morphling
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSkem
47% · 144 games54% · 210 games
DoomJabz
Doom
Tiny
TinyJaunuel
54% · 487 games43% · 103 games
Queen of PainMikoto
Queen of Pain
Clockwerk
ClockwerkNARMAN
52% · 268 games49% · 226 games
Monkey KingQ
Monkey King
52% · 234 games
EnchantressOli
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct13:31
Geek Fam 27%Talon Esports 73%
The model gave 73% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 32:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoSkem
little data50% · 182 games
Doom23savage
Doom
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
48% · 76 games49% · 239 games
Nature's ProphetJabz
Nature's Prophet
Tiny
TinyNARMAN
54% · 704 games47% · 211 games
Monkey KingMikoto
Monkey King
Mirana
MiranaJaunuel
52% · 328 games48% · 324 games
ClockwerkQ
Clockwerk
48% · 152 games
SilencerOli
Silencer
Game 3prediction correct25:42
Geek Fam 25%Talon Esports 75%
The model gave 75% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 44:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerSkem
48% · 128 games55% · 253 games
Nature's ProphetJabz
Nature's Prophet
Primal Beast
Primal BeastForce
45% · 234 games60% · 101 game
Bloodseeker23savage
Bloodseeker
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeNARMAN
50% · 92 games51% · 232 games
LeshracMikoto
Leshrac
Tiny
TinyJaunuel
47% · 641 game50% · 369 games
ClockwerkQ
Clockwerk
49% · 140 games
PhoenixOli
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 87%
Series resultTalon Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3