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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Geek Famloss 0:3
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Talon Esportswin 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Geek Fam

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Jing · 11 games
55%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
NARMAN · 10 games
90%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 8 games
75%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Mac · 6 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jing · 6 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Skem · 6 games
67%
Sven
Svensignature
Ulnit · 6 games
67%
Warlock
Warlock
Skem · 6 games
50%

Talon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 15 games
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Ponyo · 12 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Ponyo · 11 games
45%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Yowe · 10 games
70%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Akashi · 10 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
CHYuan · 9 games
78%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Ponyo · 8 games
75%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Akashi · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
319 picks · 466 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
278 picks · 412 bans
48%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
260 picks · 446 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
255 picks · 222 bans
51%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
245 picks · 150 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
240 picks · 333 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
238 picks · 683 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
234 picks · 370 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Geek Fam
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total65% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:44
Geek Fam 59%Talon Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 48:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaNatsumi
50% · 91 game53% · 81 game
Troll WarlordAkashi
Troll Warlord
Rubick
RubickMac
46% · 463 games51% · 180 games
EnigmaWs
Enigma
Tiny
TinyJing
52% · 276 games50% · 207 games
Keeper of the LightCHYuan
Keeper of the Light
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSkem
52% · 197 games46% · 372 games
TuskJhocam
Tusk
50% · 187 games
LionPonyo
Lion
Game 2prediction missed25:25
Geek Fam 57%Talon Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 41:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenNatsumi
48% · 132 games52% · 94 games
AlchemistAkashi
Alchemist
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMac
52% · 281 game53% · 122 games
Templar AssassinCHYuan
Templar Assassin
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJing
42% · 96 games52% · 63 games
DawnbreakerWs
Dawnbreaker
Lion
LionSkem
50% · 138 games48% · 248 games
BatriderJhocam
Batrider
55% · 120 games
Vengeful SpiritPonyo
Vengeful Spirit
Game 3prediction missed12:25
Geek Fam 57%Talon Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 30:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreNatsumi
56% · 59 games50% · 101 game
LunaAkashi
Luna
Rubick
RubickMac
45% · 326 games53% · 52 games
SniperCHYuan
Sniper
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJing
46% · 108 games45% · 138 games
MarsWs
Mars
Enchantress
EnchantressSkem
51% · 226 games57% · 235 games
BatriderJhocam
Batrider
50% · 193 games
Crystal MaidenPonyo
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 65%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3