Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famloss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Geek Fam
Miranasignature
Skem · 8 games
Rubicksignature
Skem · 8 games
Lifestealersignature
Natsumi · 7 games
Lion
Skem · 7 games
Morphlingsignature
Natsumi · 7 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 7 games
Vengeful Spirit
Jing · 7 games
Batridersignature
Jing · 6 games
Talon Esports
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 16 games
Vengeful Spirit
Ponyo · 13 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
CHYuan · 12 games
Dragon Knightsignature
CHYuan · 11 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Ponyo · 11 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Yowe · 10 games
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 9 games
Marssignature
Ws · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
382 picks · 353 bans
Centaur Warrunner
352 picks · 560 bans
Vengeful Spirit
345 picks · 337 bans
Mars
341 picks · 514 bans
Techies
327 picks · 257 bans
Batrider
318 picks · 623 bans
Hoodwink
310 picks · 185 bans
Tiny
297 picks · 288 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Geek Fam
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total56% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed3:29
Geek Fam 52%Talon Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 37:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenNatsumi
LeshracCHYuan
RazorMac
SlarkAkashi
MiranaSkem
Centaur WarrunnerWs
52% · 132 games
BatriderJhocam
51% · 37 games
Elder TitanPonyo
Game 2prediction correct9:32
Geek Fam 49%Talon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 37:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaNatsumi
LeshracCHYuan
PangolierMac
LifestealerAkashi
TerrorbladeSkem
Centaur WarrunnerWs
54% · 143 games
Shadow DemonJhocam
51% · 161 game
MiranaPonyo
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 56%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2