Ghost frogs vs Into The Breach — prediction DPC2—ЗЕ · Dota 2

arrow_backBack to match

Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3

result vs prediction

Ghost frogsloss 0:2

series probability

47%53%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Into The Breachwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ghost frogs

Storm Spiritoften banned

Mastermind · 5 games

20%

Spirit Breakeroften banned

Nukkumatti · 4 games

50%

Terrorbladeoften banned

Ulnit · 4 games

Beastmasteroften banned

OwnedMe · 3 games

33%

Chaos Knight

Ulnit · 3 games

67%

Lunaoften banned

Ulnit · 3 games

33%

Puckoften banned

Mastermind · 3 games

67%

Razoroften banned

OwnedMe · 3 games

Into The Breach

Medusasignature

Charlie · 9 games

78%

Snapfiresignature

Era · 9 games

78%

Marsoften banned

Xibbe · 8 games

50%

Linasignature

Bor@nija · 7 games

71%

Shadow Demonsignature

Era · 7 games

86%

Tidehuntersignature

Xibbe · 7 games

71%

Void Spirit

Bor@nija · 7 games

57%

Lion

Era · 6 games

33%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Bane

484 picks · 348 bans

57%

Mars

440 picks · 637 bans

50%

Queen of Pain

374 picks · 467 bans

51%

Weaver

372 picks · 819 bans

57%

Snapfire

362 picks · 190 bans

46%

Kunkka

296 picks · 491 bans

54%

Spirit Breaker

284 picks · 436 bans

54%

Ember Spirit

258 picks · 348 bans

53%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)36% vs 36%

Hero pool strength61% Into The Breach

Head-to-head1 – 1

Model total53% Into The Breach

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct21:5

Ghost frogs 47%Into The Breach 53%

The model gave 53% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 19:13.

Game 2prediction correct27:39

Ghost frogs 47%Into The Breach 53%

The model gave 53% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 38:48.

Model check result

Model favoriteInto The Breach · 53%

Series resultInto The Breach 0:2

Series predictioncorrect

Accuracy by game2 of 2