Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Ghost frogsloss 1:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Bald Rebornwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ghost frogs
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mastermind · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
OwnedMe · 2 games
Chaos Knight
Ulnit · 2 games
Disruptor
j4 · 2 games
Dragon Knight
Tobi · 2 games
Mirana
MiLAN · 2 games
Snapfire
Nukkumatti · 2 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Nukkumatti · 2 games
Team Bald Reborn
Pangolieroften banned
Rajjix · 4 games
Razoroften banned
Gorgc · 3 games
Dark Willow
Pablo · 2 games
Elder Titan
Eixn · 2 games
Grimstroke
pieliedie · 2 games
Hoodwink
Pablo · 2 games
Iooften banned
Eixn · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Pablo · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
371 picks · 546 bans
Bane
333 picks · 258 bans
Snapfire
330 picks · 201 bans
Weaver
314 picks · 707 bans
Monkey King
251 picks · 758 bans
Tidehunter
249 picks · 386 bans
Disruptor
237 picks · 153 bans
Ember Spirit
233 picks · 331 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Team Bald Reborn
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total57% Team Bald Reborn
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:22
Ghost frogs 47%Team Bald Reborn 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 43:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenUlnit
Wraith KingGorgc
Dark SeerOwnedMe
Storm SpiritExcalibur
Ember SpiritMastermind
UnderlordRajjix
Weaverj4
HoodwinkPablo
Monkey KingNukkumatti
SnapfireEixn
Game 2prediction correct20:32
Ghost frogs 45%Team Bald Reborn 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 33:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaUlnit
MedusaGorgc
RazorOwnedMe
TimbersawRajjix
Ember SpiritMastermind
Queen of PainExcalibur
Treant Protectorj4
HoodwinkPablo
Dark WillowNukkumatti
LionEixn
Game 3prediction correct25:36
Ghost frogs 46%Team Bald Reborn 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 37:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritMastermind
TerrorbladeGorgc
Drow RangerUlnit
BroodmotherRajjix
Night StalkerOwnedMe
Queen of PainExcalibur
IoNukkumatti
WeaverEixn
Banej4
Nyx AssassinPablo
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bald Reborn · 57%
Series resultTeam Bald Reborn 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3