DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Gior Dota Teamloss 1:2series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hokoriwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gior Dota Team
Dark Willow
Asao · 1 game
Marsoften banned
kendallx · 1 game
Hokori
Clockwerk
Gardick · 2 games
Death Prophet
Vitaly · 2 games
Hoodwink
Genek · 2 games
Phoenix
Genek · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Lumière · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Costabile · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
Vitaly · 1 game
Chaos Knight
Costabile · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
642 picks · 691 bans
Tiny
522 picks · 455 bans
Tusk
497 picks · 417 bans
Warlock
435 picks · 288 bans
Phoenix
427 picks · 419 bans
Shadow Demon
404 picks · 1106 bans
Puck
394 picks · 856 bans
Ember Spirit
384 picks · 627 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Hokori
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:32
Gior Dota Team 34%Hokori 66%
The model gave 66% on Hokori — the game was taken by Gior Dota Team in 51:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
HoodwinkAsao
MuertaCostabile
57% · 19 games
HuskarLumière
46% · 44 games
TidehunterVitaly
56% · 112 games
Shadow DemonGenek
45% · 38 games
ClockwerkGardick
Game 2prediction correct15:34
Gior Dota Team 32%Hokori 68%
The model gave 68% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 44:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RingmasterAsao
BeastmasterCostabile
65% · 44 games
TidehunterVitaly
46% · 81 game
Storm SpiritLumière
63% · 12 games
Crystal MaidenGardick
54% · 42 games
MarciGenek
Game 3prediction correct17:46
Gior Dota Team 32%Hokori 68%
The model gave 68% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 44:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LionAsao
Nature's ProphetLumière
52% · 23 games
UrsaCostabile
28% · 14 games
BrewmasterVitaly
50% · 24 games
HoodwinkGenek
52% · 21 game
DisruptorGardick
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 81%
Series resultHokori 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3