DreamLeague Season 29. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Gior Dota Teamwin 2:0series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TBTHE BROSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gior Dota Team
Dark Willow
Asao · 1 game
Marsoften banned
kendallx · 1 game
THE BROS
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
636 picks · 697 bans
Tiny
513 picks · 454 bans
Tusk
484 picks · 390 bans
Warlock
431 picks · 288 bans
Phoenix
405 picks · 345 bans
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 1070 bans
Puck
381 picks · 800 bans
Mars
377 picks · 562 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% THE BROS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% THE BROS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Gior Dota Team 37%THE BROS 63%
The model gave 63% on THE BROS — the game was taken by Gior Dota Team.
Game 2prediction missed
Gior Dota Team 37%THE BROS 63%
The model gave 63% on THE BROS — the game was taken by Gior Dota Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteTHE BROS · 63%
Series resultGior Dota Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2