ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Go alongloss 0:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:1
11换1win 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Go along
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Killa · 3 games
Weaveroften banned
TK · 3 games
Dark Willow
TK · 2 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Killa · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Killa · 2 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
TK · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
TK · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Killa · 1 game
1换1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
289 picks · 421 bans
Phoenix
270 picks · 399 bans
Grimstroke
257 picks · 439 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 597 bans
Tusk
225 picks · 204 bans
Lion
219 picks · 187 bans
Vengeful Spirit
215 picks · 93 bans
Pangolier
212 picks · 295 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Go along
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% 1换1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:31
Go along 47%1换1 53%
The model gave 53% on 1换1 — the game was taken by 1换1 in 30:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritStorm
Troll Warlordukiyo
61% · 109 games
Doomzeal
45% · 51 game
Keeper of the Light7e
44% · 32 games
HoodwinkpLAnet
45% · 29 games
Vengeful Spiritzzq
Model check result
Model favorite1换1 · 53%
Series result1换1 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1