Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
goonswin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GateKeptloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
goons
Pangolieroften banned
Boris · 5 games
Skywrath Mage
AfrOmoush · 3 games
Leshracoften banned
Boris · 2 games
Tusk
Boris · 2 games
Clockwerk
AfrOmoush · 1 game
Dark Willow
AfrOmoush · 1 game
Disruptor
AfrOmoush · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Boris · 1 game
GateKept
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
774 picks · 593 bans
Disruptor
548 picks · 446 bans
Tiny
439 picks · 380 bans
Beastmaster
411 picks · 968 bans
Nature's Prophet
408 picks · 688 bans
Undying
399 picks · 592 bans
Mirana
388 picks · 208 bans
Ember Spirit
387 picks · 910 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% goons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% goons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:13
goons 65%GateKept 35%
The model gave 65% on goons — the game was taken by goons in 37:52.
Game 2prediction correct35:10
goons 65%GateKept 35%
The model gave 65% on goons — the game was taken by goons in 39:50.
Model check result
Model favoritegoons · 65%
Series resultgoons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2