Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
goonswin 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GateKeptloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
goons
Pangolieroften banned
Boris · 5 games
Rubick
Giant · 4 games
Skywrath Mage
AfrOmoush · 4 games
Leshracoften banned
Boris · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
Lil_Nick · 2 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Boris · 2 games
Techies
Giant · 2 games
Tusk
Boris · 2 games
GateKept
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Chen · 3 games
Silenceroften banned
CHAAANNN · 3 games
Techies
Chen · 3 games
Disruptor
CHAAANNN · 2 games
Lich
CHAAANNN · 2 games
Rubick
Chen · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
JP · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
JP · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
707 picks · 594 bans
Disruptor
552 picks · 489 bans
Beastmaster
439 picks · 1073 bans
Doom
427 picks · 750 bans
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 1009 bans
Tiny
378 picks · 361 bans
Enchantress
373 picks · 537 bans
Mirana
373 picks · 202 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% GateKept
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total59% goons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:8
goons 57%GateKept 43%
The model gave 57% on goons — the game was taken by goons in 33:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeBoris
Troll WarlordJP
VisageLil_Nick
PhoenixCHAAANNN
Spirit BreakerGiant
RubickChen
Game 2prediction correct37:13
goons 54%GateKept 46%
The model gave 54% on goons — the game was taken by goons in 25:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenBoris
TerrorbladeJP
MagnusLil_Nick
Spirit BreakerChen
Skywrath MageGiant
SilencerCHAAANNN
Model check result
Model favoritegoons · 59%
Series resultgoons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2