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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Goonsquadloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Into The Breachwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Goonsquad

No games played over 6 months.

Into The Breach

Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 18 games
78%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Ari · 18 games
78%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Kidaro · 17 games
59%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Supream^ · 11 games
82%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 10 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Otaker · 10 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 10 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
698 picks · 551 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
497 picks · 647 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
496 picks · 768 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
474 picks · 984 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
370 picks · 421 bans
54%
Zeus
Zeus
322 picks · 399 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
302 picks · 155 bans
49%
Razor
Razor
296 picks · 548 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% Into The Breach
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Goonsquad
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:41
Goonsquad 53%Into The Breach 47%
The model gave 53% on Goonsquad — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 41:02.
Game 2prediction missed10:32
Goonsquad 53%Into The Breach 47%
The model gave 53% on Goonsquad — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 33:37.
Game 3prediction missed29:42
Goonsquad 53%Into The Breach 47%
The model gave 53% on Goonsquad — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 1:11:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteGoonsquad · 53%
Series resultInto The Breach 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3