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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
GRIN esportsloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The Hutwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GRIN esports

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Lodine · 9 games
89%
Mars
Marssignature
Moo · 9 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 8 games
25%
Doom
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 6 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Moo · 5 games
40%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Bloody Nine · 5 games
60%
Luna
Luna
Double King · 4 games
75%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Double King · 4 games
25%

The Hut

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
bgod · 4 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
bgod · 2 games
100%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
bgod · 2 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
bgod · 1 game
100%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 1 game
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
bgod · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
417 picks · 604 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
367 picks · 384 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
357 picks · 139 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
355 picks · 461 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
323 picks · 349 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
314 picks · 159 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
313 picks · 579 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
310 picks · 621 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% GRIN esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% The Hut
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:37
GRIN esports 46%The Hut 54%
The model gave 54% on The Hut — the game was taken by The Hut in 41:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMoo
little datalittle data
Nyx Assassinbgod
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct19:42
GRIN esports 46%The Hut 54%
The model gave 54% on The Hut — the game was taken by The Hut in 44:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerMoo
50% · 26 games50% · 26 games
Rubickbgod
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Hut · 54%
Series resultThe Hut 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2