Grind Back vs Carstensz Esports — prediction I2ОК · Dota 2

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The International 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

GBGrind Backloss 1:2

series probability

69%31%

probability at match start · final 1:2

Carstensz Esportswin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Grind Back

No games played over 6 months.

Carstensz Esports

Slardaroften banned

seimei · 6 games

33%

Hoodwink

ace12 · 4 games

50%

Axeoften banned

seimei · 2 games

50%

Bane

ace12 · 2 games

100%

Doomoften banned

seimei · 2 games

50%

Lich

ace12 · 2 games

50%

Lone Druidoften banned

Dreamocel · 2 games

50%

Necrophosoften banned

Dreamocel · 2 games

50%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

616 picks · 400 bans

54%

Rubick

518 picks · 288 bans

50%

Phoenix

484 picks · 581 bans

51%

Tiny

464 picks · 386 bans

50%

Pangolier

423 picks · 596 bans

49%

Puck

342 picks · 967 bans

56%

Tusk

339 picks · 284 bans

54%

Ember Spirit

332 picks · 501 bans

50%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 54%

Hero pool strength53% Carstensz Esports

Head-to-head0 – 1

Model total69% Grind Back

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct36:13

Grind Back 62%Carstensz Esports 38%

The model gave 62% on Grind Back — the game was taken by Grind Back in 31:53.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo