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Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smasherswin 1:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 1:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hellbear Smashers

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 13 games
69%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 13 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
75%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
83%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Gilgir · 11 games
82%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Gilgir · 11 games
64%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 11 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 10 games
90%

B8 Esports

Puck
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 13 games
38%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
[T]SA · 10 games
30%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
RdO · 8 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Dendi · 7 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
[T]SA · 7 games
43%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
RdO · 7 games
29%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Duster · 6 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
[T]SA · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
371 picks · 765 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
344 picks · 456 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
295 picks · 516 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
267 picks · 223 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
262 picks · 396 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
240 picks · 143 bans
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
231 picks · 481 bans
55%
Wraith King
Wraith King
227 picks · 323 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 36%
Hero pool strength68% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total84% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Hellbear Smashers 84%B8 Esports 16%
The model gave 84% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 84%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1