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Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Spider Pigzsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hellbear Smashers

Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 11 games
82%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 10 games
70%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 9 games
78%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Gilgir · 9 games
89%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 9 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
tOfu · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ace · 8 games
88%

Spider Pigzs

Rubick
Rubick
dnz · 14 games
43%
Lina
Linasignature
No!ob · 13 games
62%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mitch · 12 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dnz · 11 games
45%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LeBronDota · 9 games
56%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 8 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
dnz · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
293 picks · 592 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
264 picks · 340 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
234 picks · 415 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
218 picks · 174 bans
48%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
190 picks · 356 bans
57%
Rubick
Rubick
189 picks · 101 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
187 picks · 585 bans
59%
Wraith King
Wraith King
183 picks · 247 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 52%
Hero pool strength62% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:7
Hellbear Smashers 68%Spider Pigzs 32%
The model gave 68% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 24:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordAce
53% · 42 games38% · 40 games
Ursalil pleb
Ursa
Tidehunter
TidehunterMISERY
58% · 55 games46% · 94 games
Void SpiritNo!ob
Void Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightStormstormer
60% · 17 games47% · 13 games
Bounty HunterMitch
Bounty Hunter
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightGilgir
58% · 82 games43% · 58 games
Wraith KingLeBronDota
Wraith King
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassintOfu
57% · 80 games42% · 71 game
Grimstrokednz
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct24:21
Hellbear Smashers 67%Spider Pigzs 33%
The model gave 67% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 33:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaAce
42% · 21 game54% · 22 games
Phantom Assassinlil pleb
Phantom Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey KingStormstormer
50% · 45 games50% · 24 games
LycanNo!ob
Lycan
Axe
AxeMISERY
48% · 9 games70% · 8 games
BristlebackMitch
Bristleback
Rubick
RubicktOfu
51% · 51 game52% · 33 games
Shadow Shamandnz
Shadow Shaman
Chen
ChenGilgir
50% · 4 games46% · 43 games
Crystal MaidenLeBronDota
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 78%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2