Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaisersloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Team Spirit
Miranasignature
Mira · 17 games
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 15 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 13 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 13 games
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
Oraclesignature
Miposhka · 12 games
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
377 picks · 207 bans
Puck
372 picks · 979 bans
Mars
363 picks · 601 bans
Grimstroke
344 picks · 356 bans
Snapfire
314 picks · 181 bans
Tusk
286 picks · 221 bans
Tiny
278 picks · 191 bans
Death Prophet
275 picks · 611 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 78%
Hero pool strength63% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:19
HellRaisers 30%Team Spirit 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:28.
Game 2prediction correct14:26
HellRaisers 30%Team Spirit 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 70%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2