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FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1w Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
55%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 18 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 17 games
76%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
4nalog · 17 games
29%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 14 games
71%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Wisper · 14 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 14 games
50%
Lina
Lina
Yuma · 12 games
58%

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 28 games
68%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kasane · 23 games
61%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 21 game
76%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 20 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
68%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
kasane · 16 games
75%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 16 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
SSS · 15 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
498 picks · 257 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
470 picks · 465 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
356 picks · 972 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
327 picks · 372 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
299 picks · 146 bans
52%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
295 picks · 489 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
294 picks · 498 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
291 picks · 616 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 61%
Hero pool strength58% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:37
Heroic 58%1w Team 42%
The model gave 58% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 47:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYuma
52% · 289 games46% · 385 games
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
Dragon Knight
Batrider
BatriderWisper
53% · 388 games47% · 176 games
LeshracSquad1x
Leshrac
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDavai
53% · 198 games52% · 129 games
SlardarSSS
Slardar
Silencer
SilencerKJ
45% · 211 games51% · 535 games
Tinyswedenstrong
Tiny
Tusk
TuskScofield
50% · 362 games50% · 223 games
Disruptorkasane
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct36:14
Heroic 55%1w Team 45%
The model gave 55% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 37:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautYuma
50% · 17 games56% · 134 games
MedusaMunkushi~
Medusa
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainWisper
40% · 172 games49% · 274 games
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Storm Spirit
Night Stalker
Night StalkerDavai
55% · 71 game52% · 79 games
SlardarSSS
Slardar
Tusk
TuskScofield
48% · 372 games56% · 91 game
Chenkasane
Chen
Bane
BaneKJ
55% · 98 games44% · 152 games
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 66%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2