ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
beastcoastloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 14 games
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 9 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
KJ · 8 games
Lion
Scofield · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 7 games
Tiny
Scofield · 7 games
Alchemist
K1 · 6 games
Marssignature
Davai · 6 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
341 picks · 514 bans
Phoenix
294 picks · 432 bans
Lion
286 picks · 249 bans
Vengeful Spirit
286 picks · 208 bans
Grimstroke
264 picks · 456 bans
Magnus
256 picks · 408 bans
Pangolier
255 picks · 365 bans
Nature's Prophet
253 picks · 743 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:11
Heroic 65%beastcoast 35%
The model gave 65% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 46:30.
Game 2prediction correct21:13
Heroic 65%beastcoast 35%
The model gave 65% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 33:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 65%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2