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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 17 games
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
KJ · 13 games
62%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 11 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 11 games
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
KJ · 10 games
70%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 9 games
78%

BOOM Esports

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Panda · 14 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panda · 10 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 10 games
30%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
ILICH- · 10 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 9 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 9 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
44%
Magnus
Magnussignature
ILICH- · 8 games
88%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
412 picks · 664 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
390 picks · 626 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
387 picks · 359 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
386 picks · 315 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
371 picks · 811 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
367 picks · 433 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
355 picks · 358 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
339 picks · 205 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 71%
Hero pool strength51% Heroic
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total50% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:11
Heroic 50%BOOM Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 47:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerK1
54% · 75 games52% · 231 game
WindrangerPakazs
Windranger
Pangolier
Pangolier4nalog
54% · 197 games46% · 209 games
MarsILICH-
Mars
Death Prophet
Death ProphetDavai
55% · 61 game49% · 256 games
Crystal MaidenPanda
Crystal Maiden
Rubick
RubickScofield
46% · 244 games
Undying
UndyingKJ
45% · 119 games
Game 2prediction correct26:35
Heroic 49%BOOM Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 45:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenK1
51% · 103 games56% · 179 games
SlarkPakazs
Slark
Brewmaster
BrewmasterDavai
43% · 83 games52% · 196 games
Centaur WarrunnerILICH-
Centaur Warrunner
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyer4nalog
45% · 26 games52% · 207 games
PugnaPanda
Pugna
Enchantress
EnchantressKJ
47% · 167 games
Rubick
RubickScofield
46% · 203 games
Game 3prediction correct26:16
Heroic 51%BOOM Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 41:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshrac4nalog
46% · 62 games49% · 101 game
RazorPakazs
Razor
Abaddon
AbaddonK1
44% · 13 games54% · 75 games
ChenPanda
Chen
Magnus
MagnusDavai
46% · 84 games54% · 223 games
Primal BeastILICH-
Primal Beast
Rubick
RubickScofield
50% · 160 games
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeKJ
49% · 80 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 50%
Series resultHeroic 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3